Prediction Markets vs. Real Wars: Kalshi's Stress Test
Prediction Markets vs. Real Wars: Kalshi’s Stress Test
The scene: American missiles hit Iranian nuclear facilities. Within hours, prediction markets saw millions in volume on a macabre question—would Ayatollah Khamenei still be in power by month’s end?
Kalshi and Polymarket, platforms designed to aggregate collective wisdom, suddenly found themselves aggregating collective anxiety about active warfare. The markets were working as designed. Whether they should be working during active warfare became the question.